- Since 2010, NFL teams have drafted 30 quarterbacks in the first round.
- First-round QBs have been a mixed bag of success, with some looking like future Hall of Famers while many more have been busts.
- We compared the pre-draft ratings of those QBs with the four players expected to go in the first round this year.
- Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.
The first day of the NFL draft is always a mad scramble for quarterbacks and this year with four expected among the top 32 picks.
The draft is often a crapshoot, especially for quarterbacks as teams often reach in the hopes of drafting a franchise player.
Below, we ranked the last 30 QBs who have gone in the first round of the NFL Draft based on their pre-draft Scouts, Inc. ratings, along with the top four prospects this year. We also looked at what the draft experts thought at the time and how their careers have turned out.
34. EJ Manuel — Buffalo Bills, 2013
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 76
Pick overall: 16
What the draft experts were saying: "As gifted as any quarterback in the class, with a strong arm and good mobility. Scouts appreciate his leadership qualities and toughness, and hope he can improve on his consistency." NFL.com
Where they are now: After Manuel started ten games as a rookie with the Bills, he fell out of favor and started just seven more games over the next three seasons. He spent the 2017 season with the Raiders, but was cut before the 2018 season. After failing to make the Chiefs roster prior to the 2019 season, he announced his retirement and is now an analyst for the ACC Network.
33. Tim Tebow — Denver Broncos, 2010
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 78
Pick overall: 25
What the draft experts were saying: "It will take Tebow 3-4 years to learn an NFL offense to where he could actually start a game. Tebow's best fit at the next level will be at fullback or H-Back because his best skills are his running abilities; there's too much development involved to draft Tebow as a franchise quarterback." - Walter Football
Where they are now: Tebow spent just two seasons with the Broncos, winning one playoff game. He was traded to the Jets where he spent one season mostly on special teams. He later failed to make the rosters with the Patriots and Eagles and is now pursuing a career as a professional baseball player.
32. Daniel Jones — New York Giants, 2019
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 80
Pick overall: 6
What the draft experts were saying: "Jones needs a place where he can develop. Learning behind Philip Rivers and Tyrod Taylor in Los Angeles is a good match for him. While he has good timing as a passer, he needs to work on his poise under pressure." - Todd McShay, ESPN
Where they are now: Jones replaced Eli Manning as the Giants' starter after just six games in his rookie season. After the Giants were widely ridiculed for drafting him so early, he showed flashes of potential with 24 TDs and 12 interceptions in 13 games.
31. Patrick Mahomes — Kansas City Chiefs, 2017
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 82
Pick overall: 10
What the draft experts were saying: "Mahomes' ability to improvise and extend plays can lead to big plays for his offense, but he will have to prove he can operate with better anticipation and be willing to take what the defense gives him in order to win from the pocket. Mahomes will be a work in progress, but he's a high ceiling, low floor prospect." - NFL.com
Where they are now: Mahomes has emerged as the best quarterback in the NFL, winning the MVP in 2018 and leading the Chief to a Super Bowl win in 2019.
T29. Paxton Lynch — Denver Broncos, 2016
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 85
Pick overall: 26
What the draft experts were saying: "Based on film and projecting for the future, Paxton Lynch is the best quarterback in this NFL Draft. Period." - Sporting News
Where they are now: Lynch was drafted in the hopes of being the heir to Peyton Manning, but in two seasons he started just four games. He was cut prior to the 2018 season and sat out the entire season. After failing to make the Seahawks' roster in 2019, he hooked on with the Steelers where he is a backup.
T29. Christian Ponder — Minnesota Vikings, 2011
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 85
Pick overall: 12
What the draft experts were saying: "He doesn't have the strongest arm and will have some trouble driving the ball downfield, but he does an excellent job of anticipating and delivering the ball in stride on short-to-intermediate routes. He is also light on his feet and can buy time within the pocket." - ESPN
Where they are now: Ponder led the Vikings to a 10-6 record in his second season, but injuries and inconsistency cost him his job over the next two seasons. Ponder briefly spent time with the Broncos and 49ers, but never appeared in a game.
T27. Lamar Jackson — Baltimore Ravens, 2018
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 86
Pick overall: 32
What the draft experts were saying: "He has rare speed and athleticism and can single-handedly win games. Jackson's accuracy is clearly spotty and teams must decide the level of accuracy they are willing to live with relative to his ability to create explosive plays ... Like Deshaun Watson in 2017, Jackson has the ability to counter mental mistakes and turnovers with a high number of explosive, touchdown-making plays." - NFL.com
Where they are now: Jackson went 6-1 as a starter his rookie season and showed flashes of being a franchise quarterback for the Ravens. In his second season, his game grew even further as he became one of the most exciting players in the sport. In 2019, he threw an NFL-best 36 TD passes, and rushed for an NFL-quarterback-record 1,200 yards and another 7 TDs.
T27. Brandon Weeden — Cleveland Browns, 2012
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 86
Pick overall: 22
What the draft experts were saying: "Weeden is accurate and can get the ball out of his hands quickly, plus he has a very strong arm. However, there are concerns about his ability to make sound decisions under pressure." - ESPN
Where they are now: Weeden was cut by the Browns after just two seasons. He later started games with both the Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans. Weeden spent the 2017 and 2018 seasons as a backup with the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans.
26. Deshaun Watson — Houston Texans, 2017
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 87
Pick overall: 12
What the draft experts were saying: "[His interceptions] are worrisome. But then you watch him play like he did in the national title game win over Alabama and you see a potential top-five pick. At 6-2, 221, Watson doesn't have ideal size, but he has the arm strength, toughness and athleticism to play for a long time." - Mel Kiper
Where they are now: Watson was handed the starting job in Week 2 of his rookie season and immediately became one of the most exciting players in the NFL. A torn ACL cut his first season short after just seven weeks. However, he returned to form and led the Texans to the playoffs each of the next two seasons and was named a Pro Bowler twice.
25. Mitchell Trubisky — Chicago Bears, 2017
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 88
Pick overall: 2
What the draft experts were saying: "Trubisky is the favorite to be the first quarterback selected. Some team sources see him as a second-round talent, while others have him in Round 1. While he isn't a true top-of-the-draft talent at quarterback like an Andrew Luck or Jameis Winston, Trubisky will probably go high in the first round because of teams desperate to find a franchise quarterback." - Walter Football
Where they are now: Trubisky started 12 games his rookie season, throwing 7 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He was better his second season, leading the Bears to a 12-4 record and a spot in the playoffs. However, he regressed in 2019 and his future with the Bears seems bleak.
T23. Teddy Bridgewater — Minnesota Vikings, 2014
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 89
Pick overall: 32
What the draft experts were saying: "Compensates for a lack of elite arm talent and prototype measureables with the intangibles and football intelligence that could elevate the other 52 players around him." - NFL.com
Where they are now: Bridgewater led the Vikings to the 2015 playoffs and showed signs of a promising NFL career before a devastating knee injury nearly ended it. He revived his career as a backup for the Saints, going 5-0 as a starter in 2019. He is now the starter for the Carolina Panthers.
T23. Justin Herbert — Oregon, 2020
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 89
Pick overall: ?
What the draft experts are saying: "The senior has all the physical tools to be a good NFL starter with a powerful arm, mobility and accuracy. When Herbert is given time, he is utterly deadly in his ability to carve up a defense." - Walter Football
Where he is most often projected to be drafted: In the most recent mocks, seven of 11 experts surveyed had Herbert going No. 5 to the Dolphins.
T18. Dwayne Haskins — Washington Redskins, 2019
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 90
Pick overall: 15
What the draft experts were saying: "I'm not buying that Haskins' athleticism will cause him to drop far -- we knew he wasn't a great athlete. He will pick teams apart from the pocket." - Mel Kiper, ESPN
Where they are now: Haskins struggled in seven starts as a rookie, throwing 7 TDs and 7 INTs.
T18. Kyler Murray — Arizona Cardinals, 2019
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 90
Pick overall: 1
What the draft experts were saying: "Murray is an aggressive playmaker with a strong arm, quick release and explosive mobility, yet he is also a sound decision-maker who stays poised under pressure and isn't easily rattled by mistakes. He throws the ball accurately from a variety of arm angles and excels at making off-balance throws." - Todd McShay, ESPN
Where they are now: Murray's performance as a rookie seemed to support the notion of the Cardinals using the first pick on him despite drafting Josh Rosen the year before. While the Cardinals only won five of his 16 starts, he threw for 20 TDs and rushed for more than 500 yards and 4 TDs.
T18. Johnny Manziel — Cleveland Browns, 2014
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 90
Pick overall: 22
What the draft experts were saying: "Nick Saban is the best defensive mind in football and he had no answers for Manziel. That carries a lot of weight with NFL people, knowing he had no answer for Manziel in two football games. He's no guarantee, he's a wild card. But in a league that protects quarterbacks, he can have success." - Mel Kiper
Where they are now: In less than two years, he had checked himself into rehab, was accused of assaulting his girlfriend, and was ultimately released after two seasons and just 258 passes as a professional. He worked on a comeback with stints in the CFL and the AAF, but is now out of football and presumably retired.
T18. Jake Locker — Tennessee Titans, 2011
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 90
Pick overall: 8
What the draft experts were saying: "Erratic performance has certainly hurt his draft stock. An extremely gifted athlete, Locker's production does not match his talent. He possesses a cannon for an arm, but he is not an efficient passer. At this point, his greatest asset is his athleticism and it is unclear if he will ever be a starting quarterback at the next level." - NFL.com
Where they are now: Locker spent four seasons with the Titans, starting 23 games. But after the 2014 season, he announced his retirement from the NFL, saying he no longer had a desire to play at the level required for the NFL.
T18. Jordan Love — Utah State, 2020
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 90
Pick overall: ?
What the draft experts are saying: "Jordan Love isn't without his warts but he possesses a high-level physical skill set and peaks on tape that reveal the ceiling of a potential dynamic NFL starting quarterback. His arm talent and mobility is perfect for the trends of today's NFL and there is no limitations to what he can do on the field. The full playbook is open for Love and then some." - Joe Marino, The Draft Network
Where he is most often projected to be drafted: A survey of recent experts has Love going as high as No. 23 to the Patriots or possibly No. 24 to the Saints.
T14. Baker Mayfield — Cleveland Browns, 2018
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 91
Pick overall: 1
What the draft experts were saying: "Russell Wilson is the closest NFL comparison for Mayfield in our opinion, but there are still some obvious flaws in that comp. Mayfield is one of the most polarizing players in this class, in large part due to his outstanding football character and leadership but debatable maturity. In our opinion, Mayfield grades out as a good NFL starter but he clearly comes with some red flags (measureables, footwork, played in spread offense)." - ESPN.com
Where they are now: The Browns surprised many by taking Mayfield with the first pick of the 2018 draft. The pick appeared to be a good one as Mayfield took over the starting job early in the season and led the Browns to six wins with exciting play. However, Mayfield and the Browns crumbled under the increased expectations his sophomore season, going 6-10 and throwing 21 interceptions despite being a trendy Super Bowl pick before the season.
T14. Blake Bortles — Jacksonville Jaguars, 2014
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 91
Pick overall: 3
What the draft experts were saying: "At 6-foot-4, 230 pounds, with not elite but good arm strength, and the ability to move both in the pocket and to make plays down the field as a runner, he has a chance to add value and eliminate negative plays with his mobility as he develops as a passer." - Mel Kiper
Where they are now: Bortles was a starter for five seasons with the Rams before being benched late in the 2018 season. He went 24-49 as a starter and never made a Pro Bowl. He spent the 2019 season as a backup on the Rams and is now a free agent.
T14. Carson Wentz — Philadelphia Eagles, 2016
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 91
Pick overall: 2
What the draft experts were saying: "With a body type that is as prototypical as they come and a background in reading the entire field and working through progressions, Wentz will immediately check a couple of boxes that many college quarterbacks won't be able to check. While his arm strength is OK, he can still make all the throws and he can make them with accuracy." - NFL.com
Where they are now: Wentz emerged as an MVP candidate in 2017, but a torn ACL cut his season short and Nick Foles took over and led the Eagles to a Super Bowl win. Wentz was replaced by Foles again in 2018 for their playoff run. However, any doubts about Wentz's status were erased when the Eagles let Foles leave in free agency after the season.
T14. Jared Goff — Los Angeles Rams, 2016
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 91
Pick overall: 1
What the draft experts were saying: "He might need time adjusting to an NFL playbook coming from a wide-open system. He is one of the top two quarterbacks in this class and has the tools and acumen to develop into an above-average starter. " - ESPN.com
Where they are now: Goff had a rough rookie season under Jeff Fisher but turned things around in his second season under rookie head coach Sean McVay. In 2017 and 2018, the Rams went 24-7 with Goff as a starter, he was named to two Pro Bowls, and led them to a Super Bowl. However, Goff and the Rams regressed in 2019, raising questions about his chance to become a top-level QB.
T12. Josh Rosen — Arizona Cardinals, 2018
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 92
Pick overall: 10
What the draft experts were saying: "Rosen is the most polished quarterback in this class when he's at his best, and he has rare arm talent. But he was inconsistent in 2017 and dealt with a serious shoulder injury in 2016. His medical reports and interviews with teams at the combine will be extremely important." - Mel Kiper
Where they are now: Rosen was inconsistent during his rookie season on a team without a lot of talent. With the first pick of the 2019 draft, the Cardinals took Kyler Murray. Rosen was traded the next day to the Dolphins where he went just 0-3 as a starter in 2019. Once again his future is in big trouble as the Dolphins are expected to draft a QB in the first round.
T12. Josh Allen — Buffalo Bills, 2018
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 92
Pick overall: 7
What the draft experts were saying: "Likely be the biggest boom-or-bust quarterback prospect in the draft. Allen's size and arm talent are prototypical for early first-round picks, but it's rare to find a quarterback with such a low college completion rate become a successful pro." - NFL.com
Where they are now: Allen had a rough rookie campaign throwing the ball, but did enough with his legs to show that the Bills can be patient with his arm and decision-making skills. In 2019, he led the Bills to the playoffs, but questions still remain about whether or not he can be consistent as a passer.
T9. Marcus Mariota — Tennessee Titans, 2015
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 93
Pick overall: 2
What the draft experts were saying: "Will face the same challenges that several quarterbacks before him have faced in terms of learning how to read defenses and go through progressions. The tape was less kind to Mariota than expected, but his size, athleticism and consistency of football character throughout his career are necessary traits in becoming a good-to-great quarterback. " - NFL.com
Where they are now: After Mariota had a strong sophomore campaign with 26 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, he regressed in Year 3 with 13 touchdowns and 15 INTs. In 2019, he was benched after six games and he is now a backup for the Las Vegas Raiders but could challenge Derek Carr for the starting job.
T9. Cam Newton — Carolina Panthers, 2011
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 93
Pick overall: 1
What the draft experts were saying: "There are the polarizing intangibles. Some question his maturity and ability to win over the locker room at the NFL level, while others point to his record as proof that he's an effective leader." - ESPN.com
Where they are now: Newton became one of the top QBs in the NFL, a three-time Pro Bowler and the 2015 NFL MVP. He signed a 5-year, $104 million contract prior to the 2015 season. However, the Panthers won just 23 games with Newton as a starter over the next four seasons as he battled injuries that limited him to just two games in 2019. He was cut by the Panthers after the 2019 season.
T9 Tua Tagovailoa — Alabama, 2020
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 93
Pick overall: ?
What the draft experts are saying: "Tagovailoa has an expert feel for the pocket, stepping up or away from pressure while keeping a balanced base and his eyes downfield. The junior quarterback doesn't have a rocket arm, but the ball jumps off his hands; he can hit deep outs with plenty of velocity and he throws a pretty deep ball. In the short and intermediate areas, he leads his receivers away from big hits or hits them perfectly in stride so they turn upfield and pick up extra yards." - Danny Kelly, The Ringer
Where he is most often projected to be drafted: In the most recent mocks, six of 11 experts surveyed had Tagovailoa going No. 6 to the Chargers. However, many would not be surprised if he went earlier.
T6. Sam Darnold — New York Jets, 2018
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 94
Pick overall: 3
What the draft experts were saying: "There are a lot of similarities between Darnold and [Philip] Rivers. They have similar builds with hitches in their throwing motions that make them a bit unorthodox. Both are pocket passers who throw the ball accurately with timing and precision. Both also are known to be good leaders, workers and teammates." - Walter Football
Where they are now: Like many young QBs, Darnold has been up and down in two seasons, at times looking like a future Hall of Famer and at others looking like the Jets may not have their franchise QB.
T6. Ryan Tannehill — Miami Dolphins, 2012
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 94
Pick overall: 8
What the draft experts were saying: "Tannehill is a dynamic athlete at quarterback, so much so that he was a major contributor at receiver for his first two-plus years with the Aggies before becoming their starting signal-caller. In his early starts at quarterback, this NFL-sized prospect was more of a gunslinger, but he has now morphed into an effective and efficient passer in the pocket." - NFL.com
Where they are now: Tannehill started all but three games in his first five seasons with the Dolphins, but missed the entire 2017 season with a knee injury, and never reached the playoffs. After the 2018 season he was traded to the Titans where he replaced Marcus Mariota as the starter after just two games. After the season, he re-signed with the Titans on a four-year, $118 million contract.
T6 Joe Burrow — LSU, 2020
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 94
Pick overall: ?
What the draft experts are saying: "Burrow tallied 32 big-time throws (a college football best) but just nine turnover-worthy plays during the regular season, grading out tops among all quarterbacks both under pressure and on tight-window passes. The fearless demeanor he showed in the biggest moments in 2019 invites Tom Brady comparisons." - Danny Kelly, The Ringer
Where he is most often projected to be drafted: Burrow is widely expected to be the first pick of the draft by the Bengals.
5. Blaine Gabbert — Jacksonville Jaguars, 2011
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 96
Pick overall: 10
What the draft experts were saying: "Gabbert has the frame, intangibles and arm strength teams look for. He is a tough leader who can play through pain and rally his teammates, and while he needs to improve his pocket mobility and ability to handle pressure he has the toughness and foot speed to do so." - ESPN.com
Where they are now: Gabbert was traded to the San Francisco 49ers after just three seasons and just prior to the Jaguars drafting Blake Bortles. After three seasons as a part-time starter with the 49ers he has bounced around to the Cardinals, Titans, and the Bucs.
T2. Robert Griffin III — Washington Redskins, 2012
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 97
Pick overall: 2
What the draft experts were saying: "He's accurate, throws a fantastic deep ball, is a proven leader and has shown evaluators he's a QB first, athlete second. Great kid, great pick." - Mel Kiper
Where they are now: Griffin was the toast of the league after his rookie season, which ended with a Pro Bowl appearance and the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. It was all downhill from there, as the dual-threat's play suffered thanks to a series of frustrating knee injuries, as well as a growing rift with the coaching staff. He was released in 2016 and signed with the Browns, but played in just five games thanks to a shoulder injury. He most recently signed with the Baltimore Ravens after missing the entire 2017 season and has spent the past two seasons as the backup to Lamar Jackson.
T2. Jameis Winston — Jameis Winston, 2015
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 97
Pick overall: 1
What the draft experts were saying: "Winston scares the hell out of me, but he is better than the other guy [Mariota]. He is a player. I like him. He is not afraid. He tries to do too much, but just looks like a winner when he plays." - Anonymous NFL offensive coordinator
Where they are now: Winston made the Pro Bowl as a rookie and led the Bucs to a 9-7 record in his second season. This led to the Bucs being a sleeper Super Bowl pick prior to the 2017 season, but Winston and the Bucs struggled to a 5-11 record. In 2019, Winston became the first quarterback ever to throw 30 TDs and 33 INTs in one season. After the season, the Bucs did not franchise tag him, allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent.
T2. Sam Bradford — St. Louis Rams, 2010
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 97
Pick overall: 1
What the draft experts were saying: "Very competitive and a strong leader. Extremely productive and successful in college. " - NFL.com
Where they are now: After Bradford spent five seasons with the Rams, he has bounced around and spent part of the 2018 season with the Arizona Cardinals, his third team in four years, and his final season in the NFL. Still, Bradford has made over $114 million in his career, thanks in large part to the decision to go pro after an injury and enter the final draft before the NFL curbed rookie salaries.
1. Andrew Luck — Indianapolis Colts, 2012
Scouts, Inc. draft rating: 99
Pick overall: 1
What the draft experts were saying: "[Talking to] everybody and anybody, I have never yet heard a dissenting vote about Andrew Luck...If he's not great, then everybody is wrong. Because nobody has stepped up and said Andrew Luck is slightly overrated, not as good as advertised, over-hyped, or this concerns me about his game. Nothing concerns anybody about Andrew Luck." - Mel Kiper
Where they are now: Luck was lauded by some as the second-best QB prospect ever, behind John Elway, and early in his career he appeared to be living up to the hype. He was a Pro Bowl QB each of his first three seasons as he led the Colts to the playoffs each year. After he played only 22 games over three seasons and missed the entire 2017 season with a shoulder injury, he erased the doubts by returning to his Pro Bowl level in 2018. However, he shocked the NFL world when he suddenly retired during the 2019 preseason.
- Read more NFL draft coverage:
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- The 27 biggest NFL Draft busts of the last 15 years
- NFL MOCK DRAFT: What the experts are predicting for all 32 first-round picks
- The top 14 quarterbacks in the 2019 NFL draft class, ranked
- The Raiders sent their scouts home 6 days before the draft because the new GM reportedly 'does not know who he can trust with his draft secrets'